It is almost time for the 2022-23 Detroit Red Wings season to begin and for the first time in a while, it looks like they will have some difficult decisions in terms of the initial 23 man roster. Veterans who are not just locker room presence filler, older prospects looking to finally earn a regular spot, and young prospects looking for their first chance to show what they can do on NHL ice. There are a few ways they could go with their roster decisions and which decisions they make will tell us a lot about where the front office and new coaching staff sees this roster at the start of the season. Before getting into the potential choices, first we need to establish how many spots are actually open.
Current Roster Locks
The likely roster before the final decisions are made looks something like this:
FORWARDS
Tyler Bertuzzi – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Jakub Vrana – Andrew Copp – David Perron
Dominik Kubilik – Michael Rasmussen – Filip Zadina
FOURTH LINE
DEFENSE
Ben Chiarot – Moritz Seider
Olli Maatta – Filip Hronek
THIRD PAIRING
GOALIES
Alex Nedeljkovic
Ville Husso
EXTRA SKATERS
13th Forward
7th Defeseman
14th Forward/8th Defenseman
So it looks like the Red Wings have to decide how to fill five regular lineup spots and three extra skaters. The question becomes then, how do they fill those spots and what do those decisions say about the perceived expectations to start the season.
BUBBLE PLAYERS
Here is the players remaining that the Red Wings will choose from to fill those eight spots (does not include players not currently under contract with Detroit).
FORWARDS
Pontus Andreasson
Austin Czarnik
Adam Erne
Matt Luff
Givani Smith
Elmer Soderblom
Oskar Sundqvist
Pius Suter
Jonatsan Berggren
Taro Hirose
Kyle Criscuolo
Cross Hanas
Joe Veleno
DEFENSE
Albert Johansson
Gustav Lindstrom
Jared McIsaac
Donovan Sebrango
Wyatt Newpower
Eemil Viro
Robert Hagg
Simon Edvinsson
Jordan Oesterle
That is twenty-two skaters (nine defensemen, thirteen forwards) for eight spots. In reality though, several of those players have little to no shot at making the roster right now (Criscuolo, Czarnik, Luff, Andreasson, Hanas, McIsaac, Newpower, Viro). That really means it is eight forwards and six defensemen fighting for the last spots. There are two trains of thought that can be applied here to determine what is the right eight skaters to keep, the “safe” option and the “let them play” option. For the sake of continuity and not having this article be 2000 words, let’s consider the Red Wings elect to carry fourteen forwards and seven defensemen.
The “Safe” Option
While not quite the “tie goes to the veteran” mantra of the late Ken Holland Era, this option would see the majority of the young prospects being cut in favor of veterans and older prospects who are essentially in make it or move it years. This would mean the five forwards being Adam Erne, Pius Suter, Oskar Sundqvist, Givani Smith, Taro Hirose and the three defensemen being Robert Hagg, Gustav Lindstrom, and Jordan Oesterle. Making the Lines looking something like this:
FORWARDS
Tyler Bertuzzi – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Jakub Vrana – Andrew Copp – David Perron
Dominik Kubilik – Michael Rasmussen – Filip Zadina
Adam Erne – Pius Suter – Oskar Sundqvist
DEFENSE
Ben Chiarot – Moritz Seider
Olli Maatta – Filip Hronek
Robert Hagg – Gustav Lindstrom
GOALIES
Alex Nedeljkovic
Ville Husso
EXTRA SKATERS
Givani Smith
Jordan Oesterle
Taro Hirose
While not nearly as exciting as the second option is, this would provide stability on the back end of the roster for Detroit while allowing the likes of Berggren, Soderblom, Veleno, and Edvinsson to log tons of minutes down in Grand Rapids and provide quality depth when the inevitable injuries occur.
The “Let Them Play” Option
Instead of letting their young prospects grow in Grand Rapids, they elect to develop them with the Red Wings and back fill with useful veterans. This would mean Veleno, Berggren, Soderblom, and Edvinsson all make the roster. This would likely result in Pius Suter and either Adam Erne or Oskar Sundqvist as the other two forwards while Gustav Lindstrom and either Jordan Oesterle or Robert Hagg as the other two defensemen. Since the young prospects would not be kept on the roster to be healthy scratched, it is safe to assume they would make the lineup and result in the lines looking something like this:
FORWARDS
Tyler Bertuzzi – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Jakub Vrana – Andrew Copp – David Perron
Dominik Kubilik – Michael Rasmussen – Filip Zadina
Jonatan Berggren – Joe Veleno – Elmer Soderblom
DEFENSE
Ben Chiarot – Moritz Seider
Olli Maatta – Filip Hronek
Simon Edvinsson – Gustav Lindstrom
GOALIES
Alex Nedeljkovic
Ville Husso
EXTRA SKATERS
Pius Suter
Adam Erne or Oskar Sundqvist
Jordan Oesterle or Robert Hagg
The benefit and upside of this lineup is really in that forward depth. That is four pretty competitive lines there that could be seen as the majority of the Red Wings core and depth going forward. Edvinsson also gets a chance to learn at the NHL level while not being thrown into a more demanding role (either with Detroit or Grand Rapids) early on. It would also give them three quality veterans that they can plug into a lot of spots on the lineup if needed. Of course, the downside is the depth falls off pretty quickly if injuries start up as many of the players that would down in Grand Rapids would either be too raw or not really more than a warm body type, especially at forward.
It is likely the Red Wings will choose some combination of the two extremes above. We have already seen that somewhat play out as Edvinsson, Berggren, Smith, and Hirose…along with eleven others named above…have been assigned to Grand Rapids. That leaves them with eighteen forwards and eleven defensemen listed, but Smith and Hirose will still count until they either clear waivers tomorrow or are claimed. Robby Fabbri also counts as one of those eighteen until they can officially put him LTIR. That brings the forward count down to fifteen and unless they carry eight defensemen (which would require them to call someone back up or sign and keep Jeremie Biakabutuka with the Red Wings) instead of fourteen forward Elmer Soderblom only has Kyle Criscuolo to beat out to make the roster.
On the blue line, as mentioned they now only have eleven left, but that includes Mark Pysyk and Jake Walman who are injured, as well as Seth Barton and the aforementioned Biakabutuka. Still some surprises in store. Will they stay with what they have, will they claim someone on waivers, will there be a trade, we will find out by 7pm.