The Detroit Red Wings next offseason is shaping up to be another busy one, as there are 20 players set to become UFAs or RFAs at the end of the season. Let’s take a (very) early look at the futures of Detroit’s UFAs.
The Griffins Players
The non-roster players for the Red Wings are mostly non-factors; barring a hefty amount of injuries, there’s a good chance most of these players will stick to the minors this year. Brian Lashoff, Ryan Murphy, Daniel Renouf and Riley Barber will be in Grand Rapids for a vast majority of the year (Again, barring injuries).
The Goaltenders
Thomas Greiss and Calvin Pickard are both becoming UFAs at the end of the season. Pickard is more in the camp of the aforementioned Griffins players as he’s going to be in the crease for the Griffins for most of the season. There’s a good chance Pickard receives another contract as a backup. Last year, when Jonathan Bernier was missed a chunk of games, Pickard was a serviceable replacement.
Greiss is a bit hard to predict, as his performance was all over the place last season. For two months early in the year (January 13th to March 13th), he was one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL. His save percentage was the second worst, sitting at .883 in that stretch. Greiss also notched only one victory in that time, with only one win to 11 losses (Although one could argue that goal support was the main reason for such lowly stats). However, Greiss did a complete 180. In the month of April, his save percentage was .947 – 2nd best in the league among goaltenders with more than 5 starts. He had only one regulation loss in that time.
If his year ends strong, there’s a good chance Greiss is offered a contract. If he can keep a consistent performance throughout the year, there might be a pretty hefty contract heading his way (Although the length probably won’t be long, as he’s already 35 years old). However, if his inconsistency lasts the entire year, Detroit might go shopping for a new goaltender.
The Defense
There are four upcoming UFAs on Detroit’s defense. Danny DeKeyser, Nick Leddy, Marc Staal and Troy Stecher.
I’ve already written about how pivotal this year is for DeKeyser and his future with the organization. To sum it up, he needs to rebound strongly from his back injury – something he struggled to do last year. Unfortunately, it’s looking like this might be his last season in Detroit.
Leddy is being brought in for a very specific role: to mentor Detroit rising defensive star, Mortiz Seider. The problem is, if he does his role well and Seider transitions to the NHL quickly, he’ll have to carve out a new one on the roster to prove his worth to the team. And if he fails, he’s gone. With young talent making their way to the roster, Leddy could have trouble finding a new role in the long term future of the team. However, he could get a Staal-type extension and act as a guide for Detroit’s other young defensemen for just a few more years.
The Staal-Stecher pairing returns to Detroit this season, perhaps the best pure-defensive pairing on the team last year. Here’s some statistical proof:
Staal received a $2 million, one-year extension during the offseason, but there’s a chance it’ll be his last with Detroit. There’s only so much room on the roster for guiding veteran defensive presence; with the amount of prospects shuffling down the defensive pipeline, it’s only a matter of time before the older players are replaced by prospects. Staal has been a pretty solid placeholder, but next season might be the last time Detroit has room for that sort of role.
Stecher is just a bit younger (27 years old) and better. However, there seems to be a bit of a disconnect of perception between the fans and management. While fans applauded Stecher’s safe and intelligent play for most of the season, the organization rewarded him with a few healthy scratches and no protection in the expansion draft. Even if Stecher has another great season, he might not return – whether it be his own choice or Yzerman’s.
The Offense
Three of the Red Wings forwards will become free agents this season: Robby Fabbri, Vladislav Namestnikov and Sam Gagner.
Fabbri will almost certainly be offered a contract if he isn’t traded. There could be a disconnect between what Fabbri believes he is worth and what Yzerman is willing to pay him, especially if 2021-22 is another season affected by injury. However, he’s just 25 years old and he’s been one of the better offensive forwards on the team. Fabbri should end up a Red Wings beyond this year.
Namestnikov, on the other hand, probably won’t be a Red Wings after this season. So far, he’s been relatively lackluster for the team, especially offensively: he had eight goals and nine assists in 53 games with a corsi-for relative percentage of -4.9. Although Namestnikov did illustrate an ability to play competently in nearly any line he was placed on, his overall skillset is a bit replaceable. Like Staal, talent down the pipeline might steal a future roster spot for Namestnikov.
Gagner could also be viewed as a bit of a placeholder. He was a bottom six player last season, mainly finding efficiency on Detroit’s fourth line. Gagner actually drove offense relatively well, even if his seven goals and eight assists didn’t quite reflect that; he possessed a corsi-for relative percentage of 4.9 in 2020-21. Gagner will probably find similar success in Detroit this year, cycling and distributing the puck well on the bottom lines. He’ll probably also see a major boost in penalty killing minutes with Darren Helm and Luke Glendening gone. However, it’s tough to see that kind of role extending past this season with the amount of talent gathering in Grand Rapids and Europe this year.